Mongolia’s Moment, Daily Brief September 2, 2024

The Kremlin has announced Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia tomorrow.

The announcement has sparked a flurry of media questions and diplomatic concerns, because Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), and Mongolia, as a member of the ICC, is obligated to arrest him.

The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin last year in relation to the ICC’s ongoing Ukraine investigation. The charges – also leveled against Russia’s children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova – concern the mass abduction of children from Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

As we’ve pointed out in this newsletter several times before, the forced transfer of populations from occupied territory is a war crime.

Regular readers of this Daily Brief may find something familiar in the Mongolia situation.

Last year, Putin sought to attend the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the top-level meeting bringing together Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. However, because South Africa is an ICC member, the government was reminded of its obligations to arrest Putin if he appeared on South African soil.

In the end, South Africa announced – after a “number of consultations” – Putin would not be coming to the summit in person after all.

Whether it’s South Africa then or Mongolia now, Putin’s motivation in these efforts seems clear enough. He wants to be seen not as the fugitive from international justice that he is, but as an accepted international leader.

If he can convince governments to host him on a visit, it’s good optics for him. If that government is an ICC member, even better from his standpoint.

So, all eyes on Ulaanbaatar today: what will Mongolia do?

The drama of a fugitive trying to escape justice makes for good media headlines, but let’s remember first and foremost what all this is actually about: the countless Ukrainian children Russia has abducted and forcibly transferred to other occupied territories in Ukraine or deported to Russia.

They’ve placed many Ukrainian kids in Russian foster and adoptive families, assigned them Russian nationality, and separated them permanently from their Ukrainian families, communities, culture, and country.

No one knows what exactly will happen in the next 24 hours. Will Putin go to ICC member Mongolia? If so, will Mongolia uphold its obligation to arrest him? Or will the visit get cancelled as it did with South Africa last year?

The only thing anyone knows for sure is it will be another 24 hours of rotten injustice for all those abducted Ukrainian kids.