Syria Surprise, Daily Brief, December 5, 2024

The Syrian conflict is back in the news again, with the outbreak of major fighting in the north of the country over the past week – along with revived fears of new atrocities against civilians.

November 27 saw the start of a surprise offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist armed group that controls most of Syria’s Idlib province. They are fighting alongside factions of a group called the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is backed by Türkiye.

These anti-government forces together quickly seized large swaths of territory from Syrian government control, including the major city of Aleppo and the surrounding countryside. In addition, they’ve reportedly taken some areas that had been under control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which are backed by the United States.

The new offensive is pushing further south, too. Reports this morning say they’ve surrounded the strategic city of Hama, under government control.

In response, the Syrian government has vowed to mount a counteroffensive. It has been carrying out airstrikes across the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo alongside Russian forces.

More than 50 airstrikes hit Idlib alone, impacting at least four health facilities, four school facilities, two displacement camps, and a water station. Another government airstrike reportedly hit the entrance of the University Hospital in Aleppo.

Civilians have been quick to suffer from all this fresh fighting.

As of December 3, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported attacks in Idlib and northern Aleppo, by both armed opposition groups and Syrian government forces, had killed 69 civilians, including 26 children, and injured 228. By December 4, the Syrian Network for Human Rights recorded 149 civilian deaths.

Tens of thousands of Syrians have been displaced since the escalation of hostilities began on November 27. There have been severe disruptions to basic services and aid delivery.

What happens next in this conflict is anyone’s guess, but the past behavior of both sides gives enormous cause for concern.

There are documented records of the opposition groups mistreating religious and ethnic minorities and women in areas under their control. They’ve also been known to abuse people in detention, raising fears for the wellbeing of captured enemy fighters.

On the other side, the Syrian government and its ally Russia have also been responsible for atrocities over the past 13 years of hostilities. This includes repeated Syrian and Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, which may amount to crimes against humanity.

The widespread and systematic torture of tens of thousands of people by Syrian government forces is extensively documented and amounts to crimes against humanity.

The past eight days of renewed fighting have seen international calls for parties to comply with the laws of war. It’s also seen various promises from the warring parties to do so.

But what’s needed more than words is accountability. As long as perpetrators keep getting away with atrocities, they will likely keep committing them.

As HRW’s Adam Coogle, says: “Without credible justice, there will be no end in sight to the suffering Syrians have endured, no matter who controls the land.”