Lebanon’s already traumatized civilian population is at grave risk of falling victim to atrocities, chillingly previewed by Israeli officials.
On Wednesday, Israel’s army chief suggested it was considering a ground invasion, pointing to Hezbollah - which has launched rockets and missiles at Israel injuring at least a dozen people - as its target. But Israel’s recent record and statements by its leaders suggest there is a real risk of wider atrocities against all Lebanese. Last week, Israeli Education Minister Yoav Kisch said Lebanon would be “annihilated." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Lebanon's civilians directly, previewing attacks on densely populated residential areas saying “for too long, Hezbollah has been using you as human shields. It placed rockets in your living rooms and missiles in your garage…. We must take out those weapons. Starting this morning, the IDF has warned you to get out of harm’s way”
Already, more than 90,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon over the past five days of airstrikes joining over 110,000 who have been forced to leave their homes since last October. But things could get much worse. In Gaza, 85 percent of the population is under Israeli evacuation orders, the repeated displacements have led to family separations, and interrupted access to life-saving healthcare and food aid.
Since September 23, Israeli attacks have killed more than 700 people in Lebanon, including more than 50 children.
For almost a year, in the wake of the crimes against humanity committed by Hamas and other armed groups on October 7, a myriad of civil society groups, including Human Rights Watch has mobilized to prevent further atrocities in the region. Admittedly, while no one can claim they didn’t know of the risk, this effort has been unsuccessful as serious abuses and violations have continued and spread. Israel has flouted three rounds of preventive measures ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and its escalating operations in the West Bank, alongside unchecked settler violence, have triggered the risk of further atrocities there.
If policymakers have learned anything from Israel’s conduct in Gaza it is to take its words seriously. Rhetoric equating all Palestinians in Gaza with Hamas presaged Israel’s use of starvation as a weapon of war on Gaza and large-scale aerial bombardment, including of known locations of aid workers, residential buildings, and hospitals. Soldiers have gunned down families and tortured healthcare workers.
Speaking out is our duty. Alongside documenting war crimes in real time, seeking to prevent atrocities is a central part of our mandate as a human rights organization.
When a party capable of committing mass atrocities begins to make calls and statements suggesting it’s willing to commit more crimes, and even takes actions consistent with those words, we need to see a more serious response from the international community.
For example, President Biden committed early in his tenure to conduct atrocity risk assessments in situations like these, and is required to report to Congress on these efforts. Despite Israeli war crimes in Lebanon, the administration’s 2024 report on atrocity prevention does not mention the country at all. At least now, in the wake of the last week’s escalation, it should seriously examine the warning signs in Lebanon and mobilize other partner governments to do so as well. The intentional weaponization of pagers, unlawful use of white phosphorus, apparently unlawful attacks on civilians, including journalists and aid workers, and attacks killing scores of children are all flashing red lights in Lebanon that any risk assessment would note with alarm.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has already been stark in his own warning, telling leaders gathered in New York for the annual UN General Assembly, “the people of Lebanon, the people of Israel and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
Human Rights Watch is calling on Israel’s key allies, including the United States, to suspend military assistance and arms sales to Israel, given the real risk that they will be used to commit grave abuses. Instead, the US has done the opposite, and continues to approve weapons transfers and military aid without conditions.
World leaders gathered in New York held an emergency meeting on Lebanon, but words alone will not be enough to shift the Israeli government’s plans. Leaders need to act.
